Wednesday, October 04, 2006
VLJs
There's a new breed of aircraft coming to a runway near you. They're called VLJs, or "Very Light Jets." They're small, twin engined planes that usually seat around 6-8 people, have a cruise speed of around 370 knots, and an maximum altitude of around 40,000 ft. Cessna is introducing the "Mustang" light business jet. Eclipse Aviation is introducing the model 500 VLJ, and Adam Aviation is introducing the remarkable looking A700, which features jet engines mounted close to the centerline, and a swoopy looking empennage assembly that incorporates a one piece horizontal stabilizer/elevator system that looks pretty cool to me. These jets have proven to be hugely popular. Cessna has orders for 250 Mustangs, Adam Aviation has orders for 350 of those neat looking A700s, and Eclipse claims 2,500 orders for the Model 500. Right out of the gate, those are big numbers for a new class of aircraft. Traditionally, buyers usually wait for others to buy, and see how things work out.
A lot of this popularity is a result of commercial aviation's continuing woes. Bad service performed by airline employees whose pay and benefits have been slashed to record low levels, and a security system that is onerous at best, being run by the TSA, a somewhat inept organization that's pretty much out of control cost and oversight wise has made what was once considered a unique and fun experience an ordeal to be endured. Many business travelers, and the companies that employ them, are looking with great interest at these inexpensive, versatile jets, having grown weary of bad airline service, long security lines, and apathetic employees at both the airlines and TSA.
This, of course, is not good news for the traditional airline industry. They're looking at these jets with fear and trepidation, and are concerned (For damn good reasons.) that they'll lose business to these jets. They probably will. Airlines have always looked at flying of any sort that doesn't happen in their aircraft as "the competition." and have been campaigning for some time now for a system of expensive user fees for "private aviation" types of aircraft. Their ultimate aim is to make general aviation so expensive, as to be prohibitive to all but the most wealthy. They figure that will get people out of small aircraft, and put butts back into airline seats.
The airline's latest tactic is to try and scare the general public that these new breed of aircraft will slow the air traffic control system down, resulting in delays, and compromises on safety. But it's too late. The cows are out of the barn, as Eclipse and Cessna already have type certifications in hand. These planes are here to stay. And the pre-production order numbers indicate that many organizations are willing to take a chance on them. The FAA has stated that they can handle the new aircraft in the Air Traffic Control system. Maybe, maybe not. The ATC system in under increasing stress, with record levels of retirements across the nation, and not enough students in the pipeline to replace them. While these planes CAN fly as high at 40,000, I tend to believe that controllers will keep them down at the 30,000 level, along with the turbo-props that usually hang out in that region.
Of course, that means that the private pilots, people like me, who fly for pleasure, are going to get caught up in the middle of all of this. If costs are added to an already expensive hobby, it could spell trouble for America's general aviation system. The airlines don't care about any of that. If fact, I think they'd just as soon see general aviation go away.
"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!) but 'That's funny ..."
Isaac Asimov
A lot of this popularity is a result of commercial aviation's continuing woes. Bad service performed by airline employees whose pay and benefits have been slashed to record low levels, and a security system that is onerous at best, being run by the TSA, a somewhat inept organization that's pretty much out of control cost and oversight wise has made what was once considered a unique and fun experience an ordeal to be endured. Many business travelers, and the companies that employ them, are looking with great interest at these inexpensive, versatile jets, having grown weary of bad airline service, long security lines, and apathetic employees at both the airlines and TSA.
This, of course, is not good news for the traditional airline industry. They're looking at these jets with fear and trepidation, and are concerned (For damn good reasons.) that they'll lose business to these jets. They probably will. Airlines have always looked at flying of any sort that doesn't happen in their aircraft as "the competition." and have been campaigning for some time now for a system of expensive user fees for "private aviation" types of aircraft. Their ultimate aim is to make general aviation so expensive, as to be prohibitive to all but the most wealthy. They figure that will get people out of small aircraft, and put butts back into airline seats.
The airline's latest tactic is to try and scare the general public that these new breed of aircraft will slow the air traffic control system down, resulting in delays, and compromises on safety. But it's too late. The cows are out of the barn, as Eclipse and Cessna already have type certifications in hand. These planes are here to stay. And the pre-production order numbers indicate that many organizations are willing to take a chance on them. The FAA has stated that they can handle the new aircraft in the Air Traffic Control system. Maybe, maybe not. The ATC system in under increasing stress, with record levels of retirements across the nation, and not enough students in the pipeline to replace them. While these planes CAN fly as high at 40,000, I tend to believe that controllers will keep them down at the 30,000 level, along with the turbo-props that usually hang out in that region.
Of course, that means that the private pilots, people like me, who fly for pleasure, are going to get caught up in the middle of all of this. If costs are added to an already expensive hobby, it could spell trouble for America's general aviation system. The airlines don't care about any of that. If fact, I think they'd just as soon see general aviation go away.
"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!) but 'That's funny ..."
Isaac Asimov
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The A700 wins the pretty contest. That Mustang looks like the result of cross breeding a MD80 and a busted up fighter...(:
My guess is eventually, all "pathways" in the sky will be treated as toll roads, just as are surface highways. You get on, get off at a certain point, you pay x dollars. I think there's no doubt VLJ's are going to have a substancial impact, not only on the Begacy lines, but the bigger privates as well. At $1.5mil vs a ho bunch of mils...excepting Gates and Buffet, the rest of the business world wants to get from point A to point B and make more money.
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My guess is eventually, all "pathways" in the sky will be treated as toll roads, just as are surface highways. You get on, get off at a certain point, you pay x dollars. I think there's no doubt VLJ's are going to have a substancial impact, not only on the Begacy lines, but the bigger privates as well. At $1.5mil vs a ho bunch of mils...excepting Gates and Buffet, the rest of the business world wants to get from point A to point B and make more money.
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